总量开始减少的欧洲人口形势分析

An Analysis of Population Situation in Europe

自20世纪60年代以来,欧洲人口增长率持续下降,1999年人口开始负增长,这无疑是其人口发展的一个转折点。在欧洲各个地区中,东欧是2000年以前全球第一个也是仅有的一个人口有所减少的地区。在北欧和西欧地区,如果没有国际移民的净流入,人口增长率也将很低。大约在2010-2040年间,预计欧洲所有地区的人口都将出现负增长。由于自然增长率在过去一个世纪乃至未来的变动,欧洲人口已不可逆转地老龄化,其中位年龄在各大洲中是最高的。未来数十年内欧洲人口结构的进一步老化,将对社会安全和保健体系构成挑战,对经济发展和全球竞争力产生影响。

The growth rate of European population has been declining ever since 1960s. In 1999, it began to generate negative momentum, which is undoubtedly a turning point in the development of European population. It is estimated that in around 2010-2040, population growth rate will be negative in all regions of Europe. Since natural increase rate kept unchanged in the past century and could remain the same in the future, Europe's population is well on the way to become irreversibly older. Over the coming decades, the decisive shift to an older age structure in Europe will challenge its social security and health systems, and could affect its e-conomic growth and global competitiveness.