影响四川省粮食生产因素的灰色分析与粮食产量预测

The Grey Correlation Analysis of Factors Affecting Grain Production and the Forecast for Grain Production in Sichuan Province

应用灰色系统分析方法分析了1994～2000年影响四川省粮食生产的因素,得到四川省粮食生产影响关联度,结果表明:对四川省粮食生产影响程度大小依次是化肥施用量、有效灌溉面积、劳动力、农业用电、农机总动力、支援农业生产支出、农牧业税、耕地播种面积及受灾面积.加大对农业的投入对四川省粮食生产的积极作用较大,重视自然灾害对粮食生产不利影响,对提高四川农业生产具有必要性.又通过多元线性回归模型预测了四川省2005、2010、2015、2020、2025和2030年的粮食产量将有望分别达到3973×104、4264×104、4556×104、4848×104、5140×104和5432×104t.

With grey correlation analysis method, the economic factors during 1994～2000 which have impact on grain production have been analyzed, and the grey associated correlation is gotten. The result shows that the order of influence degree which has an impact on yield and crops production is chemical fertilizer, irrigated area, agricultural labors, electricity in rural area, total power of agricultural machinery, expenditure for supporting agriculture, agriculture tax, area of cultivated land, area covered by calamity. It is important for Sichuan province to increase agriculture investment which has a active role in yield and crops production and to pay attentation to harmful influence of natural calamity. Based on linear regression models, the yield and crops production have been forecasted and the result is 3 973×10~4 t in 2005, 4 264×10~4 t in 2010, 4 556×10~4 t in 2015, 4 848×10~4 t in 2020, 5 140×10~4 t in 2025, and 5 432×10~4 t in 2030 respectively.