人民币汇率问题:升值及其成本—收益分析

RMB Exchange Rate: Appreciation and Cost-Benefit Analysis

在回顾改革开放以来人民币汇率变动的基础上,本文首先讨论了汇率升值的短期压力和长期压力,前者源自内外经济失衡和双顺差的持续,后者由于劳动生产率的提高和经济竞争力的增强,认为目前宏观经济失衡主要表现为实体经济和货币经济的两个双向循环和双向依赖;测度了中国的外商直接投资函数和进出口函数及其汇率弹性,估算了不同幅度汇率升值的成本,主要包括引进外资和出口贸易减少的数量,以及由此带来的GDP和就业人数减少的规模,发现三个季度后,升值的影响下降一半以上,七个季度以后,升值的影响近于消失。

Having reviewed the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate since China's economic refo rmation, this paper discusses the short run and long run pressure on RMB exchang e rate appreciation, the former accounted for by the economic disequilibrium in domestic and international and the lasting double favorable balance and the latt er by productivity improvement and economic competitiveness increasing. The auth or argues that macroeconomic disequilibrium is exhibited by bilateral circulation and dependence of real and monetary economy. Then the paper measures FDI functio n, imports & exports function and the elasticity of exchange rate, estimates the cost of appreciation on variable range, which includes scalar of FDI, decrease of export and decrease of GDP & employment. The paper finds that the effect of a ppreciation drop half in three quarter and nearly disappear in seven quarter. Ac cordingly, policy advice is put forward with regarding to the space of appreciat ion and operate manner.