辛安泉流量变化的时间序列分析

Time Series Analysis for Discharge Change of the Xin’an Karst Springs

利用时间序列分析方法建立了描述辛安泉流量变化过程的混合回归模型。该模型表明辛安泉当年流量与前1年流量、前11年降水量及前1年岩溶水开采量有关。通过模型对泉流量变化的影响因素做进一步分析,结果显示:1980年是辛安泉流量变化的转折点,大气降水对1980年前的泉流量变化具有控制作用,而岩溶水开采量迅速上升则是1980年后泉流量不断衰减的重要原因。

In this paper, a multi-regression model is set up using time series analysis method, and it is applied to delineate the discharge change process of the Xin’an karst springs. The model indicates that the discharge of the Xin’an springs has relation to the spring discharge of last year, rainfalls of earlier 11 years, and karst water exploitation of last year. A deep analysis for the spring discharge change and its affecting factors shows that the year of 1980 is the important uurning point of the discharge change process of the Xin’an springs. Rainfall is the determinative factor responsible for the discharge change of the Xin’an springs before 1980, but the increasing karst water exploitation plays a more important role in the attenuation of the discharge after 1980.