近地面太阳紫外线辐射强度分析与预报

Analysis of Ultraviolet Radiation near Surface and Forecast

利用2003年3月至2004年2月日照市气象台观测的太阳紫外线辐射强度资料及对应的云量、能见度、湿度气象资料,通过对气象因子与紫外线辐射强度关系的定量分析,建立了单因子识别紫外线辐射强度的数学模型。选用单因子贡献度的数学累积值计算多因子综合贡献度,通过多级判别分析,确定综合贡献度与紫外线辐射强度等级的对应关系。根据数值模式输出产品的解释应用结果,对紫外线辐射强度等级做预报。2004年3～4月试运行结果较好。

The relationship between near surface ultraviolet radiation and meteorological conditions is analyzed by using observational data of ultraviolet radiation, daily cloud cover, visibility and humidity in Rizhao meteorological station from March 2003 to February 2004. The experimental forecasting formulas for near surface ultraviolet radiation intensity is given and the forecast by it in March and April in 2004 shows the results well.