基于模糊类比法的秦岭Ⅰ线特长隧道涌水量预测

Prediction of water inflow into Qinling extra-long tunnel on No.1 line based on fuzzy analogy

文章介绍模糊类比法用于隧道涌水量预测的基本原理与方法,并以秦岭Ⅱ线隧道实测涌水量为基础,预测Ⅰ线隧道的总涌水量和分段涌水量。结果表明,模糊类比法的预测值与实测值的误差不超过30%,较之解析法有更好的预测精度。该研究为隧道涌水量预测提供了一种简单、实用和可靠的方法。

The basic principle and method of fuzzy analogy is introduced for the prediction of water inflow into a tunnel. The water inflows into Qinling extra-long tunnel on No.1 line in total and in sections are estimated on the basis of the water inflow measured in the tunnel on No.2 line. Results show that the predicted quantity of inflow by fuzzy analogy approximates to the measured quantity with an error of less than 30%, with a better precision as compared with the analytical method. The method is simple, practical, reliable and of considerable flexibility.