TRMM降水率资料的三维变分同化及其对“杜鹃”(0313)台风预报的改进被引量：22

3D-Var Assimilation of TRMM Rain Rate and Its Impact on the Typhoon Dujuan (0313) Forecast

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摘要在GRAPES(GlobalandRegionalAssimilationandPredictionEnhancedSystem,全球/区域同化预报系统)三维变分同化系统的基础上,用改进的郭晓岚对流参数化方案作为观测算子,来同化TRMM(TropicalRainfallMeasuringMission,热带降水监测计划)卫星反演的降水率资料。单点试验表明该方案通过调整背景场的水汽辐合和辐散的垂直结构,使得同化后观测算子计算的降水率更接近实况。对台风“杜鹃”(0313)的同化试验表明,该方案有效改进背景场的动力和热力结构,使台风的初始风场、降水结构更接近实况。通过控制试验和同化试验的对比,表明同化TRMM卫星降水率资料对台风的路径预报和降水预报都有改进。 The GRAPES (Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction Enhanced System) 3D-VAR assimilation system has been released by Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences. This study uses the extension of the KUO cumulus parameter scheme as the observation operator to assimilate the TRMM rain rate on the GRAPES 3D-VAR system. Single observation tests show that this algorithm can adjust the vertical background structure of the moisture convergence depending on the difference between the observation operator calculation and the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) rain rate. After the assimilation, the observation operator can obtain more accurate rain rate using the analysis field. In the experiment of forecasting typhoon Dujuan (0313), the assimilation algorithm can adjust the dynamic and thermodynamic structure of the background field and obtain more realistic wind and precipitation structure. Compared with the control test, assimilating TRMM rain rate can improve the typhoon Dujuan’s track and precipitation forecast.

作者丁伟钰万齐林端义宏

机构地区中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所中国气象局上海台风研究所

出处《大气科学》 CSCD 北大核心 2005年第4期600-608,共9页 Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

基金 "十五"国家重点科技攻关计划项目2001BA607B 科技部重点公益性研究项目2001DIA20026 台风研究基金课题

关键词 TRMM卫星降水率三维变分同化台风预报 TRMM rain rate, 3D variational assimilation, typhoon forecast

分类号 P444 [天文地球—大气科学及气象学]

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