2003年巴楚—伽师6.8级地震中短期异常与预测

MEDIUM-SHORT TERM ANOMALIES AND PREDICTION OF BACHU-JIASHI M6.8 EARTHQUAKE, 2003

对2003年2月24日巴楚—伽师6.8级地震中短期异常和中短期预测进行了较系统的分析与总结。结果认为,6.8级地震前新疆6级地震平静4年多,5级地震平静2年,中期阶段地震平静显著;短期阶段5级地震显著增强,震源区出现前震活动,同时全疆定点前兆观测资料出现较为明显的短期异常并观测到少量的临震异常。不同孕震时段的异常特征是6.8级地震中短期预测的依据,因而也是当前经验预报的基础。

Author analyzed and summarized the medium-short term anomalies and prediction of Bachu-Jiashi M6.8 earthquake Feb.24,2003. the result show there weren't M6.0 earthquakes beyond 4 years and M5.0 earthquakes beyond 2 year, the earthquake calmness is distinct in medium term; the M5.0 earthquakes intensified in short term, there were foreshocks in the epicenter region, in the same time, the fixed point precursor observational datum of Xinjiang appeared obvious short anomalies; and found a few imminent earthquake anomalies. The anomalous characteristic of different seismogeny periods not only is the base of M6.8 earthquake's medium-short prediction, but also is the base of current experience prediction.