农村金融深化对农村经济发展的相关性分析

Financial Deepening and China Rural Economic Growth

文章以金融压抑和金融深化理论为分析依据,对我国农村金融深化与农村经济增长之间的关系进行了分析。实证分析的结果与人们的预期并不完全一致,文章对此作了理论上的解释,并认为:金融深化理论与利率政策要与农村经济发展阶段相适应;在深化农村金融改革时,重点应放在如何提高其运作效率方面,而非数量的盲目扩张上;完善农村金融体系、提高农村金融服务质量应成为农村金融改革的目标。

Accelerating rural financial deepening could contribute to rural saving increase, improve transforming efficiency form saving to investment and the investment efficiency, and quicken usual economic development. Based on the theory of financial depression and financial deepening, we analyze the relation between China rural financial deepening and rural economic growth with the data frorm 1978 to 2003 in econometrical method. Because the econometrical result differs from our forecast, the article explains it. Finally, We draw some conclusions according to above analysis: Financial depression theory and interest rate policy must accord to the development stage of rural economy; We should emphasize to improve financial efficiency, not to expand financial quantity; perfecting rural financial system and improving rural financial service quality should become the target of rural financial reforming .