台北地区冬季降水相似预报试验

Test for analog prediction of winter precipitation in Taipei

为研究相似预报技术在低纬度地区的应用问题,利用典型相关分析方法,对台北冬季降水与降水发生前12h西风带上游关键区各高度层气象要素场的相关性进行了分析,定量化地确定了台北冬季降水的预报因子。在此基础上,根据综合相似离度构造多级相似方法,建立了台北冬季有无降水的预报模型;同时利用该模型对1995年冬季降水作了试报。结果表明,该模型可以综合考虑因子相关问题,预报效果较好。

Emphasized on the research of analog prediction applied in low latitud e. With the method of canonical correlation analysis (CCA), the paper made some correlative analyses of winter precipitation in Taipei and previous 12h meteorol ogical element fields in the sur-region of southwest band. The prediction facto rs of winter precipitation were selected quantitatively. Based on those results and the theory of synthetic analog deviation, a multiple-state analog predictio n model of precipitation was developed. The method was applied to the test of pr ecipitation prediction in the winter precipitation in 1995. The result indicates that the model considers the question of factor correlation and is efficient to improve the prediction accuracy.