中国货币政策绩效的短期分析与预测

A Short-Term Analysis and Forecast on the Performance of China's Monetary Policy

根据对经济的不同作用,货币政策可分为紧缩的货币政策和宽松的货币政策。在过去的6年里,中国的货币政策一直处于相对稳健的状态。中国经济之所以取得了持续稳定的增长,就是因为实施了稳健的货币政策。通过对2004年中国经济金融形势的回顾及对货币政策及其工具的实施效果的分析,我们判断,在2005年或今后的一段时间里,我国将继续实行稳健的货币政策。

Monetary policy is one of the main macroeconomic policies for the government to intervene in its economy. In the past six years, China has brought into effect a relatively steady monetary policy, which is quite different from the active fiscal policy. Owing to the implementation of such a relative steady monetary policy, China's economy has obtained a persistent and steady growth rate. Because of the good performance of such a monetary policy, the author predicts that 'the relative steady monetary policy' will continue to play a very important role in China in 2005 or in a period of time henceforth.