近50年来人类活动对博斯腾湖水位影响的量化研究

Quantitative Effect of Human Activities on Water Level Change of Bosten Lake in Recent 50 years

博斯腾湖是新疆最大的湖泊,也是中国最大的内陆淡水湖,其巨大的环境、生态和经济价值一向为人们所关注.近50年来,博斯腾湖水位发生了很大变化,1958～1987年水位持续下降,1988～2002年水位又转为持续上升,目前处于50年来的最高水位.针对其水位变化,利用近50年来的实测数据分析了人类活动对水位变化的影响,定量还原了天然状况下博斯腾湖的水位.研究结果表明,自1958年以来人类活动对博斯腾湖水位变化的影响经历了弱→强→弱的变化过程,其中20世纪70～80年代人类活动对水位变化影响最为显著,90年代以后影响强度有所减弱.

Bosten Lake, which is located in arid and desert zone, is the largest lake in Xinjiang, and is the largest inland freshwater lake in China. It has giant value in environment, ecology and economy. The water level of Bosten Lake has changed tremendously in the recent 50 years, the water level descended from 1048 m above sea level in 1958 to 1045 m in 1987, and ascended from 1045 m to 1048.9 m during the period of 1988-2002, it is in the highest level now. According to the records in recent 50 years, this paper analyzed the effect of human activities, restored the water level of natural environment quantitatively. The research results show that the change of human's effect undergo the process from weak to strong to weak, in which, the effect of human activities is the strongest from the 1970s to the 1980s, the effect has been weakened since the 1990s.