大坝防洪安全风险率的计算方法

Estimation of hydrological risk rate for dams

综述国内有关防洪安全风险率计算的代表性模型.归纳了3种不同途径的风险率计算方案:第一种为实测坝前年最高水位序列的频率分析法,第二种基于已有的设计洪水成果,第三种基于洪水随机模拟模型生成的大样本序列.三种风险率计算方案都是以不同的方式对坝前年最高水位进行外延,核心内容都是推求坝前年最高水位的分布.以某水库为例采用这三种方案进行了应用研究,研究结果表明采用多种方案来估算防洪安全风险率是合适的.

Several representative models for estmating hydrological risk rate of dams were introduced and compared. Three different schemes were proposed, which are based on recorded water level series, design flood and reservoir inflows series generated by stochastic models respectively. The three schemes extrapolate the water level series from the different ways. The key issue is to derive the distribution of annual maximum water level. The schemes were used to estimate the risk rate for a certain dam; and the results show that using different schemes to estimate the hydrological risk is reasonable.