河流允许排污量确定的未确知风险评价

Unascertained risk analysis of river water environmental carrying capacity

从水环境系统的未确知出发,运用未确知数学理论对河流水体纳污能力及其风险问题进行研究.在定义水环境系统未确知参数概念的基础上,通过将常规的水体纳污能力计算模型中的参数未确知化,建立了河流水体纳污能力计算的未确知数学模型.通过将排污风险定义为未确知事件,提出了排污风险可靠度计算模型.实例研究表明,所建模型对水体纳污能力及其风险问题研究具有很好的适用性.

Based on the unascertainty of river water environmental system, the unascertained mathematics theory was used to research the issue of water environmental carrying capacity, and to assess the risk that corresponds to different discharge levels. On the basis of defining the concepts of unascertained parameters of water environment, an unascertained model for calculation of water environmental carrying capacity was established by treating the parameters in traditional model as unascertained numbers. In addition, through defining the risk of discharge as an unascertained event, a model for calculating the credible degree that the risk happens was also provided. Case study shows that the models proposed upward were suitable for the scientific determination of river water environmental carrying capacity.