模糊综合评价在关中灌区干旱评价中的应用

Fuzzy synthetic evaluating and its applicationin the establishment of the drought index in Guanzhong region

干旱评价是干旱预报及抗旱中一个重要的环节。本文在总结分析影响干旱发生的多种因素的基础上,将模糊综合评价具体应用到干旱指标评价研究中。首先通过建立评价的因子集、评价集、隶属函数和权重集,实现对各种程度干旱等级评判,然后综合考虑了各个评价因子对干旱发生的不同程度的影响,得到干旱的综合评价指标。最后利用1997年资料对关中四个灌区的旱情进行分析,结果与实际情况相符,说明该方法在关中灌区是有效和可行的。

Drought evaluation is an important step in evaluating and fighting drought. This paper summarizes and analyzes several factors affecting drought, and applies the fuzzy synthetic evaluating theory to the drought index evaluation in Guanzhong region. The paper evaluates different degree drought by establishing evaluation factor concourses,evaluation concourses,membership function and priority concourses, then considers the diverse degree effect of every factor on the aridity and compares with the real situation,which shows the method is effective and feasible in drought evaluation.