基于系统动力学的道路运输量预测模型

Prediction Model of Road Transportation Volume Based on System Dynamics

为了克服道路运输量预测方法中考虑系统因素较少的缺点,在对道路运输系统的主要影响因素及其因果关系进行分析的基础上,建立了道路旅客运输、道路货物运输供给与需求量预测系统动力学模型,并采用吉林省道路运输各相关统计数据对模型进行了仿真和验证。结果证明该模型有效可行。

To overcome the weak point of less consideration on the system factors in the road transportation volume prediction approaches, a model based on the system dynamics was established to predict the road passenger and freight trausportation supplies and demands on the basis of analysis of the main influence factors of the road transportation system and their causalities. The proposed model was verified by simulation using the relevant statistical data of Jilin province road transportation volume and its feasibility and efficiency were proved.