平稳序列穿过理论在预测强震趋势中的应用

AN APPLICATION OF THE CROSSING THEORY OF STATIONARY SEQUENCE IN PREDICTION OF CHINESE STRONG EARTHQUAKE TREND

本文介绍了平稳序列穿过理论及其在预测强震趋势中的应用,并用我国天山地区、西藏地区及南北地震带的地震资料进行了检验,取得了较好的结果。同时也将用这种方法所得到的结果与传统的极值法所得到的结果进行了比较,结果表明使用这种方法对强震趋势的预报是有效的,而且具有一些极值法所没有的优点。

In this paper the crossing theory of stationary normal sequence is introduced briefly. Using this theory, the strong earthquake trend of three regions in our country is analysed. The three regions are Tianshan Mountain Seismic Belt, Tibet Seismic Belt and the North-South Seismie Belt in central China. A quite good result is obtained.