重正化群方法在地震预报中的应用

RENORMALIZATION GROUP METHOD APPLIED TO EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

本文在文献[1]—[4]的基础上,用现代统计物理学观点以及重正化群方法研究了组合模式中应力积累单元的应力积累进入非线性阶段后,一维和二维震源体的破裂问题,得到了震源体破裂概率的临界值分别为0.2063和0.1707。应用二维震源体的破裂临界值,得到了孕震空区的围空地震的能量之和与参考能量的比值的临界值为0.1872,并用大华北地区1967年—1980年的10个孕震空区和1982年—1986年大华北地区所有起始震级为M_L=2.3的孕震空区进行了检验,结果是令人满意的。初步认为,临界值0.1872可以作为孕震空区危险性的判别指标。

From the point of view statistic physics and the renormalization group method, we studied the rupturing of a 1-D and a 2-D focal body, after the stress accumulation of the stress accumulation element in the combination model was into the nonlinear period. The critical value of the rupturing probability of the focal bodies is 0.2063, 0.1707 respectively. Using the rupturing critical value of the 2-D focal body, we got the critical ratio of the gap energy to the reference energy is 0.1872 for a seismic gap. The value 0.1872 was examined using ten seismic gaps from 1967 to 1980 and the seismic gaps (starting magnitude: M_L=2, 3) from 1982 to 1986 in the eastern part of China. The results are satisfactory.