青藏铁路沿线地面气温演变的非线性振荡规律研究

Studies on Nonlinear Oscillation Evolution Law of Local Temperature along Qinghai-Xizang Railway

将描述局地气温变化的非线性振荡方程应用到青藏铁路沿线9个测站(安多、当雄、托托河、班戈、格尔木、那曲、西宁、拉萨及五道梁)局地年气温演变研究中,根据各测站1966—1997年逐年年气温距平资料和反演理论获得具体描述各测站局地气温的非线性振荡方程。在不考虑外源强迫项的情况下,以经典非线性力学理论为依据,研究青藏铁路沿线9个测站的气温演变规律。结果表明,青藏铁路沿线9个测站局地气温系统是明显的非线性系统,其演变周期大致在3～6年之间,气温振幅随时间增加而衰减。其平均预报准确率为75.4%,有较好的预报能力。

The nonlinear oscillation equation describing local temperature were applied to study the evolution law of local temperature at 9 stations along Qinghai-Xizang Railway, the specific equation was obtained form the retrieving theory and the each year temperature data during 1966 to 1997. With taking no account of the external forcing condition, according to the classical nonlinear oscillation theory, the temperature evolution law at 9 stations along Qinghai-Xizang Railway was studied. The results indicate that the local-air systems at 9 stations along Qinghai-Xizang Railway are obvious nonlinear systems, and their inherent periods are form 3 to 6 years. The local temperature amplitude always decreases with time, and their average forecasting accuracy is 75.4%, which indicate that the equations have better forecasting ability.