评有关企业“改制”的数据推论

Data Inference of Enterprise "Restructuring"

依据简单的经验性统计分析和计量回归对私有化的企业改制成效所作的论证具有许多根本性的逻辑错误:将局部性的问题夸大成全局性的问题;颠倒了因果关系;不分析产生统计数字的具体环境,而作出了与实际情况相反的结论;只考虑利润率这样的效率因素就得出应将国有企业都私有化的结论;将有完善制度的私营企业与制度尚不完善的国有企业相比较;等等。依据这类研究的数据结果所作的推论是不可靠的,由这种推论所得出的有关私有化的重大结论是不可信的。

There are a lot of basic logic errors in the verification of the achievement of private-owned enterprises restructuring in terms of simple empirical statistical analysis and meterage regression: exaggerating limited problems into the whole ones; confusing cause and effect; not analyzing specific circumstances from which statistical data come and therefore conclusions contrary to actual conditions are drawn; getting the conclusion that state-owned enterprises should be privatized after taking only profit rate into account; comparing private-owned enterprises with a perfect structure with imperfect state-owned enterprises, etc. It will not be a correct inference according to the data and the conclusion of privatization drawn from the inference will not be convincible, either.