全球国际收支失衡与人民币汇率政策调整

On International Disequilibrium of Balance of Payments and RMB Exchange Rate Adjustment

美国不断积累的贸易逆差和美元贬值已经成为世界经济不稳定的重要根源。东亚经济体持有的外汇储备越多,就越容易成为美元本位制中的“人质”,一旦美元全线失守,最大的受损者不是美国,而是持有美元资产的外国政府和投资者。人民币汇率升值对我国的对外贸易、吸引外资以及金融业的冲击值得高度警惕,但也并不像人们想象的那么严重。人民币汇率政策调整的时机已经来临,政府应该果断地采取措施,从钉住美元的汇率制度转变为有管理的低频浮动汇率制度,在汇率政策调整的同时积极推动金融体制和市场体制改革。

The trade deficit steadily accumulated in the United States and the depreciation of the US dollars have been the important roots that make the world economy falter. The more foreign exchange reserves the Economic Entity of East Asia holds, the more liable it is to become the hostage to the dollar standard. Once the dollar is occupied all along the line, the victim is not the United States but the governments and the investors in the foreign countries who hold dollars as property. Although we should be highly on guard against the impact of the upward revaluation of RMB exchange rate on China's international trade, the foreign capital absorption and the financial industry, it is not as serious as people imagine. Since the opportunity of the adjustment of the RMB exchange rate policy has come, government should take measures without any hesitation, shifting their attention from the US dollar exchange rate to the policy of the floating foreign exchange rate at the low frequencies. While adjusting the foreign exchange rate, the government should also promote the financial system reform as well as the market system reform.