洪水过程不确定性对泄洪风险影响的分析

Effect of flood hydrograph uncertainty on discharge risk

重点分析了洪水过程的不确定性对泄洪风险的影响,并通过假设检验得到了洪峰削减系数的概率密度函数。以实际工程为例,利用蒙特卡洛法计算了考虑洪水过程不确定性的泄洪风险值,并与不考虑洪水过程的不确定性的计算结果进行了比较验证,结果表明后者的风险值明显大于前者,说明洪水过程不确定性对泄洪风险的影响是不可忽略的。

In this paper, the effect of the uncertainty of the flood hydrograph on flood discharge risk is analyzed. Monte-Carlo method is used to calculate the flood discharge risk of an actual engineering project with consideration of the uncertainty of flood hydrograph,the result of which is compared with the that was calculated without consideration of the uncertainty of flood hydrograph. The comparison shows that the discharge risk of the latter one is obviously higher than the former. Therefore, the uncertainty of flood hydrograph can not be neglected in flood discharge risk calculating.