随机市场下企业并购的时机与条件及在企业产权定价中的应用

The Timing and Terms of Corporate Mergers in a Stochastic Market and its Application for Property Pricing

本文假设竞争的并购企业之间、成功的并购者和目标企业之间关于并购成败的信息不完美,管理者自大,利用实物期权博弈论方法,研究生产函数为Cobb-Douglas函数情形企业并购的时机和条件。研究表明,目标企业本身的规模经济参数越高、所在产业价格的增长性越高、波动性越小、并购的协同效应越高、并购的沉没成本越低,以及剥离期权的价值越大,则并购发生的时间越早,反之亦然。目标企业本身的规模经济参数越高、所在产业价格的增长率和波动性越高、目标企业与并购者相对规模越小、并购的协同效应越高,则目标企业的保证金越高。模型可用于国有企业产权转让定价。

Incorporating imperfect information about the success and failure among competing bidders, this paper presents a model of acquisitions with a Cobb-Douglas production function. Our findings indicate that, ceteris paribus, a higher growth and lower volatility in the business unit , s industry, a higher production scale parameter of the target firm ,a higher synergy, implies a higher seller , s preservation premium . A higher growth and lower volatility in the business unit , s industry, a higher production scale parameter of the target firm ,a higher synergy, a lower sink cost of merger will speed up mergers. The model can be used to pricing for property exchange of state-owned enterprises.