用小学入学人数检验“五普”低龄组的人口漏报和性别比

The Underreporting and Sex Ratio of Lower Age Group in the Fifth Census: Investigating School Enrolment Data

用小学入学人数检验“五普”低年龄组的人口数据,发现“五普”17岁以下年龄组人口净漏报2042.03万,以此调整的2000年“五普”总人数在125315万-126087万之间,比公布的总人数少496万-1268万,其净漏报人数大约为在804万-1576万,净漏报率为0.65%-1.27%。同时得出“五普”0-4岁年龄组的性别比为114左右。

This paper finds that 20. 42 million under age 17 were underreported in the 5th census, by comparing school enrolment data. The total population in 2000 should be between 1253. 15-1260. 87 million then, which is 4. 96-12. 68 million less than published data, the net underreporting is between 8. 04-15. 76 million, and the rate of underreporting is 0. 65-1. 27%. Meanwhile, it is estimated that sex ratio of age group 0-4 is about 114 in the fifth census.