摘要
文章就当前国际老年学界对老年人健康特别是失能状况变动趋势的研究动态进行了回顾。其初步结论是自20世纪90年代以来,许多国家的老年人失能比例下降,但下降的原因尚不清楚。许多学者建议在以后的调查设计中应搜集一些影响功能状况及针对性治疗等方面的辅助信息。文章还回顾了目前国际老年学界预测未来老年人健康状况的多种方法,结果显示目前的预测虽然较以往有了很大的拓展但仍存在不足。
This paper reviews the latest international studies on the trend of health, especially disability, of the elderly. It is increasingly evident that the disability of the elderly has witnessed a decline in most countries since the 1990s. However, the causes of such a trend have not been determined. Experts suggest that more attentions should be given to gathering information about factors related to such a decline including special medical treatments. This article also reviews forecasting methods for the future health status of the elderly. Although the current methods have extended and are more robust than the earlier ones, limitations could be recognized, which includes problems without considering living arrangement, future trend of factors that affect health, impacts of policy and intervention programs, probabilistic projections, and sensitivity analyses.
出处
《中国人口科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2005年第3期81-86,共6页
Chinese Journal of Population Science
