电力系统短期负荷预测方法研究

Study on Short-term Load Forecast Method for Power System

采用混沌理论进行电力系统短期负荷预测,对利用Lyapunov指数算法进行负荷预测作了介绍,包括用混沌理论实现相空间的重构,以及通过计算关联维得到最优嵌入维数的方法、计算Lyapunov指数的方法和利用Lyapunov指数得到预测负荷数值的过程.实例预测结果,证明了算法的有效性,揭示了采用混沌理论进行短期负荷预测的优越性.

This paper mainly introduces the method of Short-Term electric power load forecast. The Short-Term Load Forecast (STLF)study for power system is the important basis for the realization of power market. The Chaotic theory is used to forecast the short-term load of power system. The application of Lyapunov index algorithm in load forecast is introduced, including the rebuilding of phrase space by Chaotic, the obtaining of best inserting dimension via relative dimension calculation, the Lyapunov index calculation method and the forecast procedure with the index. The validity of the algorithm is proved by the analysis of practical forecasting results and the advantage of adopting the chaotic theory in STLF is also discussed.