天生桥一级水电站中长期径流预报系统的应用及效益

Application Of Long-middle-range Runoff Forecast System Of TianshengqiaoⅠHydropower Station & Its Benefit

天生桥一级水电站结合多年在预报中积累的技术和经验,用给定的物理系统的变量值序列来重建系统的动力模式或用积累数据的时间序列来重构水文气象系统的相关场,并依据大气环流和海温等直接影响气候和造成天气变化的关键因素,应用气象、水文、数学和计算机等技术和方法,建立了天生桥一级水电站中长期径流预报系统,比较准确及时地预测了天生桥一级水电站的中长期水情预报信息,为防洪度汛、兴利发电调度及制作下一年的发电计划提供了重要的依据,取得了良好的社会和经济效益。

Combining technology and experience accumulated in many years, rebuilding dynamic model of a given physical system using variable alignment of the system, or reconstructing relative field of hydro-meteorological system using time array of accumulated data, according to some key factors directly influencing weather and its change such as atmospheric circulation, temperature of ocean and etc., the long-middle-range runoff forecast system of TianshenqiaoⅠHydropower Station was founded using technologies and methods of meteorology, hydrology, mathematics, computer and etc. This system has more accurately forecasted long-middle-range flow regime of the station in time, provided important basis for flood control, electricity dispatching and making plan of electricity generation for the next year, and obtained fine social and economic benefit.