通货膨胀及紧缩与货币供应关系的实证分析

AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INFLATION/DEFLATION AND CURRENCY SUPPLY

首先借用剑桥方程式建立了通货膨胀及紧缩与货币供应关系的理论模型,然后运用格兰杰因果检验的方法验证了我国超供货币供应是CPI物价指数的原因,而CPI物价指数作为超供货币供应的原因则被拒绝。说明了我国现阶段以货币供应量为中间目标调控经济的发展仍具较强实际意义。

A theoretical model for the relationship between inflation/deflation and currency supply was established, using Cambridge Equation. Then Granger Causality Test was made to prove that increase rate of overmuch currency is the cause of CPI and CPI, on the other hand, cannot act as the cause of increase of increase rate of overmuch currency in China, thus indicating that central bank control of the development of economy by adjusting currency supply remains to be of practical significance.