福利保障体制改革的消费效应研究

Study on Consumption Effect of Reform of System of Welfare and Security

九十年代中国进行了以住房教育医疗养老为主要内容的福利保障体制改革,这种改革曾对我国消费产生了巨大的影响,这种影响目前是否还存在以及多大程度上存在着?这对判断我国当前宏观经济状况及走势具有重要意义。本文的分析说明,福利保障体制改革内在的动态效应减少了表面看起来对消费的可能的冲击,而保险的替代效应的存在使福利保障改革对消费的抑制效应至少在我国中等以上收入群体中大大缩小,但对低收入群体的影响依然很大。

In nineties China carrying out a reform of welfare and security which takes housing, education, medical treatment, pension as main aspects. This reform had given a great influence on consumption. If this reform still influence and to what extent this reform still influences consumption ? Understanding this is significant for analysing China’ macroeconomic situation and developing tendency. In this study we find that the inner dynamic effect of reform of welfare and security reduce the shock on consumption which outwardly seems very big ,and replacement effect of insurance reduces the inhibition to consumption from reform of welfare and security at least in and above middle class, but this influence is still significant in poor class.