基于生态足迹的可持续发展度量及其预测——以广西为例

Measuring and Forecasting Regional Sustainable Development by Using Ecological Footprint: A Case Study of Guangxi, China

生态足迹是一种评估区域可持续发展程度和量度维持人类的自然资源消费量的帐户工具.该文利用生态足迹模型对广西2002年生态经济系统的可持续发展状态进行分析,结果表明,2002年广西人均占用生态足迹为1.3369hm2,扣除12%生物多样性保护面积后人均生物生产土地面积为0.3901hm2,人均生态赤字0.9468hm2.将生态足迹模型与系统动力学模型进行耦合,构造区域可持续发展的动力学模型,按目前社会经济发展及人口增长的状态,对广西2003-2020年生态足迹及生态承载状况进行模拟预测.广西生态足迹处于强势增长时期,到2020年,人均生态足迹将会达到2.139hm2,而当年实际人均生态承载力预测值为0.4322hm2,人均生态赤字增加至1.7068hm2,生态经济系统承载状况处于超载状态.

Ecological Footprint(EF) is a significantly accounting tool for overall assessing the status of sustainable development, and a comprehensive indicator for human resource consumption. It was developed in the early 1990s by M. Wackernagel and W. Rees. In this paper, the ecological footprints of Guangxi in 2002 were calculated, the status of sustainable development was analyzed based on the data of the statistical yearbooks. The result shows that ecological footprint per capita was 1.3369hm2,ecological capacity is only 0.3901hm2, and ecological deficit per capita is 0.9468hm2 in 2002. A dynamic model for measuring regional sustainable development was constructed by coupling ecological footprint model and System dynamic(SD) model, and the status of ecological footprint and ecological capacity of Guangxi were simulated from 2003-2020. The result of SD model shows that, according to the current speed of social-economic development and the increasing ratio of population,ecological footprint of Guangxi well be in a state of strong rising. By 2020, ecological footprint per capita will reach 2.139hm2, ecological capacity will reach only 0.4322hm2, thus ecological deficit per capita is expected to reach 1.7068hm2. The ecological footprint deficit shows that the human load has already stayed beyond the regional ecological capacity.