铜价:长期走牛?

World Copper Industry Outlook in 2005

中国经济高速发展所带动的铜需求爆炸式增长,是近年来牛市的主要成因。伴随着东欧、俄罗斯、以及印度等国家的经济发展,这些国家也将成为新的有色金属消费者。从供需基本面分析,即使铜价出现阶段性下跌,也不能改变其长期走牛的基本趋势。

Global demands for copper have more than doubled in the last thirty years, and copper prices have risen by almost 50% compared with the closure of 2003. On June 9, 2005, the International Copper Study Group said that world copper demand exceeded production by 59,000 tons in the first three months of 2005. So far, production is up 4% from a year ago and demand is down 6% with the only increase in demand from China. In 2004, world copper consumption exceeded production by 716,000 tons, up from a production deficit of 385,000 tons in 2003. The future of the copper market is related to the economy in the U.S. principally, and developments in China. If there is strong economic performance and copper consumption in China, India and other emerging countries, copper prices will be very strong in the coming years.