产业生命周期与中国钢铁产业极值点

The Life Curve and Peak Forcasting of China Steel Industry

本文在产业生命周期理论的基础上,利用发达国家钢铁产业的实证支持,联合运用类比法及生长曲线模型对中国钢铁产业生命周期进行分析,进一步预测中国钢铁产业的极值点时间和拐点时间,并从不同的指标角度对结果进行分析。随着国民经济的不断发展,中国钢铁产量持续增加,也由此引发了许多问题。判断中国钢铁产业的极值点对中国钢铁产业的可持续发展具有重要意义。

This paper first introduce the theory of industry life cycle, using the demonstration of developed countries steel industry, then analyze the Chinese steel industry by analogism and S curve together, finally get the peak time and inflexion time, and analyze the result using different index. With the development of Chinas economy, Chinese steel production is rising, which has produced some problems. The estimation of peak is useful to continuable development of Chinese steel industry.