加卸载响应比理论及其在地震预测中的应用研究进展

THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOAD-UNLOAD RESPONSE RATIO THEORY AND ITS APPLICATION TO EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

非线性系统失稳前系统对加载与卸载的响应不同．系统的加载响应率与卸载响应率之比（简称为加卸载响应比ＬＵＲＲ）可以作为非线性系统趋近失稳的定量表征．基于这一基本思想而发展起来的加卸载响应比理论为地震预测开辟了一条新途径．本文全面地综述了加卸载响应比理论的基本思路、理论基础、主要问题、震例检验、地震预测实践以及该理论的发展前景．

The response to loading and unloading for a nonlinear system are different in the eve of instability so that the retio of loading response rate to unloading response rate (called LoadUnliad Response Ratio──LRRR for short)could measure quantitatively the degree approaching instability for a nonlinear system. The LURR theory based on this key idea is openning up a new way to earthquake prediction. In this paper the key idea, theoretical foundations, main problems, retrospective examination of earthquake cases, practice of earthquake prediction and its outloook of the theory has been expounded.