经济波动理论与财政宏观调控政策

Economic Fluctuation Theory and Fiscal Macro-Regulation Policy

中国经济学者通常运用年经济增长的环比指数描绘出一定时期内的经济增长波动曲线,然后再选择这条曲线中的"波谷"或"波峰"作为坐标来划分经济周期,由此来判断宏观经济的态势和提出相应的政策建议。我们认为上述的坐标选取方法是不适当的,而应该选择经济"常态"为坐标来划分经济周期。本文还认为根据经济周期来判断经济态势是不可靠的,更不能直接作为政策依据,财政宏观调控政策应该根据体制改革的目标和需要解决的主要问题来确定。

Chinese economy scholars usually depict fluctuation curve of economic growth in a period of time by using the link index of yearly economic growth, then choose 'valley' or 'peak' of the curve graph as coordinate to divide economic period. They judge the macro-economic situation according to the divided economic period and provide corresponding macro-regulation policies. However, we believe that the coordinate choice method is not appropriate, and macro-economic situation should be judged through normality-to-normality-method. The paper also believes that it is not dependable to judge economic situation according to the economic period, which can't be taken as policy basis directly. The macro-regulation policy should be put forward according to the aim of economic system reform and the main problems to be solved.