输水管网模糊地震可靠性的 Monte Carlo 法分析程序

FUZZY SEISMIC RELIABILITY OF WATER SUPPLY PIPELINE BY EMPLOYING MONTE CARLO SIMULATION

本文详细介绍了笔者所建议的运用模糊图理论和方法进行城市输水管网的地震可靠性分析途径和计算程序。对于输水管网中每段管道的震害预测,建立了相应的专家系统。在此基础上,定义了管网系统的模糊可靠性,更好地反映了人们对于管道损坏状态估计的模糊性和对可靠性要求上的模糊性。以模糊矩阵来描述输水管网的状态是十分方便的。通过计算模糊矩阵的传递闭包,极易找出最短路、关键段等。由于地震作用和管道抗震能力都是随机的,因此整个管网系统的可靠性分析是藉助Monle Carlo法进行的。以Monle Carlo法对模糊图进行分析,从而得到管网的地震可靠性,这还是首次。用PASCAL和PROLOG编制了在微机上实用的计算机程序,特别是以智能语言PROLOG编制的程序,更有许多特色。由于采用了一些技巧,使在微机上可以分析相当大的系统,为城市抗震防灾工作提供了一个有力的工具。

The random fuzzy network theory has been presented in this paper on purpose of evalut ing the reliability of a water supply system during strong earthquakes. The damage grades of water supply pipes have been described in the manner of fuzzy sets. The reliability of the system as whole has been defined as the probability of fuzzy events, which are represented by the menbership function of demand nodes. The fuzzy matrix has been used to depict the network. The elements of the transfer closure of the fuzzy matrix are just the connectivity intensity between the specified demand node and all source nodes. Monte Carlo method has been employed in the approach. The computer program written in PASCAL and PROLOG can be used for the damage prediction of urban water-supply systems of medium-size cities.