财政政策:遵守规则还是相机抉择

Fiscal policy: Discretion or Abide by rules

2004年10月,诺贝尔经济学奖的颁发,又一次引发了人们对财政政策时间一致性的关注,遵守规则的政策主张似乎又一次回归主流。通过比较英、美等发达市场经济国家财政政策的变迁以及通过分析政策规则与相机抉择不同的理论假设,我认为在制定财政政策时必须两者兼顾。我国现行的稳健(中性)财政政策恰恰体现了这种思想的内涵与本质。

The research about the time consistency of Finn E Kydland and Edward C Prescott is attention-getting after they wined the Nobel Economic Prize in 2004.10. It seems that the rule of policy is top-dog once again at present. But, by comparing the vicissitude of the fiscal policy between the UK and the US, by analyzing the precondition of the policy rule and the discretion, it was concluded that the following principles must abide in making policy: fiscal policy aim should adjusted along with the economic change; fiscal policy shouldn't come from only some one economic theory; we should always pay attention to the public finance state; the fiscal transparent is the bedrock of continuance and reliability of fiscal policy. At the last, the neutral fiscal policy implemented in our state now was analyzed simply.