摘要
指数平滑法是常用的一种时间序列预测方法，但用于环境预测的先例则较少。本文以南通市１９８１－１９９０年工业三废排放量时间序列为例，简要介绍了该法的原理以及平滑计算、建模、预测和精度分析的过程，并对其在环境预测中的应用效果进行了探讨，结果表明，该法与目前环境预测中常用的回归法相比，具有数据来源较易，不需要特殊分布，计算简单，精度较高等明显的优点，充分显示出该法在环境预测中应用的可行性。
he exponential simooting is one of forecasting methods of time series,but itwas a less applyed to environmental forecast, this text took the time series ofdischarge amount of indusltial three wastes of Nantong 1981￣1990 years for exa-inple, did a brief introduction to it's principle and caloulating process of smoo-thing average, establishing modle, forecast and precision analysis; besides, dis-cussed the applyed effect. This effect showed cleary that the exponential smooth-ing have the distinct advantage with the dala to be get easily and no need forspecific distribution and the precision is opviously good etc, compared with theregression analysis that is often applyed now. It's feasibility of applying in en-vironmental forecast have be point fully.
关键词
指数平滑法
预测
三废排放量
exponential smooting
forecast
discharge amount of industrialthree wastes
