现代能量控制中心的运行风险评估研究初探

A PRELIMINARY INVESTIGATION ON POWER SYSTEM OPERATION RISK EVALUATION IN THE MODERN ENERGY CONTROL CENTER

该文通过定义的分析比较,提出运行风险评估和传统电力可靠性的数学模型本质上是一致的,其区别之处在于应用场景不同。该文分析了运行风险评估在可靠性原理、调度自动化技术和实际部门运营管理三方面的基础,将运行风险评估定位于架构在EMS/DTS平台上的一种随机性定量分析工具。该文在继承、发展可靠性和调度自动化研究成果的基础上,提出运用非序贯蒙特卡罗仿真和层次加关系的电网模型进行状态选择;分别运用动态潮流和暂态时域仿真进行概率充分性和概率稳定性分析;同时定义了新的运行风险指标,克服了现有运行风险指标中的遮蔽现象等缺陷。应用该文所提方法对WSCC-9系统、IEEE-39系统和浙江金华电网的计算表明,该方法可以用于调度部门的发电出力计划调整、拉闸限电方式选择和自动重合闸配置等工作。

Operation risk is a measure of the system’s exposure to failure that accounts for both likelihood and severity. By comparing the essential definitions of operation risk and the traditional reliability, it is proved that they are identical on mathematics excepting their application scenarios. Operation risk evaluation should be developed as a quantitative analysis tool for power system stochastic analysis. And it is based on reliability theorem dispatching automation technique and utility operation management. An operation risk evaluation method is proposed in this paper, which inherits and develops the reliability and dispatching automation techniques. In this method, non-sequential Monte-Carlo simulation and hierarchical data structure are adopted in state selection; dynamic power flow is applied in probabilistic adequacy evaluation while step by step simulation is used in probabilistic stability evaluation. Further more, new risk indices are defined to overcome the shortcoming existing in current risk research such as masking. And detail implementation of the method is also given in this paper. The numerical tests of WSCC-9, IEEE-39 and Jinhua power network are proposed, which prove the proposed algorithm could be used for generation dispatching, load shedding and re-closure types selection.