近50a以来青海省水资源变化趋势分析

Changing Trend of Water Resources in Qinghai Province from 1956 to 2000

选取三江源区主要代表站1956—2000年的年径流量与年降雨量资料,分析青海省三江源区水资源变化趋势.结果表明:青海省三江源区近45a来水资源变化趋势不明显.为了从更广的区域说明问题,对内陆河区青海湖、柴达木盆地的主要代表站1956—2000年的年径流量与年降雨量资料进行了分析,发现除了香日德河年径流量呈现比较明显的增加趋势之外,其它各站的年径流变化趋势均不明显,与三江源区具有相似的变化特征.

In this paper the changing trend of water resources in Qinghai Province is studied. The main representative stations in the head area of the three big rivers (Yangtze River, Yellow River, and Lancang River) are selected. Mann-Kendall and Lineal-Correlation methods are applied to analyze the changing trends of hydrologic components. By use of the yearly series of natural runoff and precipitation data acquired from the representative stations (1956 _2000), it is found that the changing trend of water resources in the head area of the three rivers is different from what achieved before. The results calculated by the two significance test methods are both below the standard value, which confirm the changing trend of water resources in Qinghai Province is not obvious. The water resources did not show an obvious variation trend in the past 45 years; however, it is found that the natural runoff has decreased since 1990. The water shortage in the 1990 had taken some bad influence to Qinghai s environment. At the same time, in order to explain the argument from more expansive area in Qinghai Province, three stations are selected from the areas of internal drainages to analyze. From the analysis, the same result is achieved as what achieved from the previous stations, except for Xiangride station. Of the variation of water resources in the areas of internal drainages, also no any obvious changing trend can be seen. But in Xiangride Station, it is found that both precipitation and natural runoff are obviously increasing.