我国宏观经济波动性实证研究及对策

Fluctuation Empirical Research of Macroeconomy and Countermeasure of Our Country

运用修正的乘数—加速数模型,对我国宏观经济运行的稳定性进行了实证分析,结果表明我国宏观经济运行的波动状态为一个递减的单调的运动与一个波幅越来越大的振荡波动的叠加,进一步证明了消费倾向偏低是造成经济不稳定的重要因素,并提出了减小经济波动幅度和稳定经济的基本政策.

This paper creates a new multiplier-accelerator model and examines the fluctuation of our macro-economy with it, the results show the wave of our macro-economy is composed of two waves, one is a dull movement, the other is a wave vibration greater and greater in amplitude, and the low propensity to consume is the main cause for the instability of our macro- economy.This paper also puts forward a way of reducing fluctuating range and stabilizing economy.