对我国当前利率政策的几点思考

Current Policy on Interest Rate in China

本次利率调整并非以宏观调控为目的而进行的主动性调整,更主要的是为适应通货膨胀变化而被动做出的适应性调整。很多经济学界的人士不断强调目前货币政策调控中应当更多采用市场化手段,也就是更多地通过利率的调整来实现对经济的调控,但中国微观主体对利率的敏感性较低,利率做为货币政策中间目标的传导效果并不理想。由于持这种观点的人数很多,因此市场往往会高估利率调整在宏观经济调控中的实际作用。在我国的利率调整政策当中,利率的市场化改革比利用非市场化的利率进行宏观调控更切合实际。当前利率市场化的最大障碍是微观主体对利率的定价能力仍相当弱,微观主体在与央行对利率决定的博弈中处于完全的弱势。非常可喜的是,此轮加息争论热潮之中,管理层除了选择加息和扩大存贷款利率波动范围之外,在培养市场的价格决定能力方面也迈出了重要一步。

The recent interest rate adjusting is passively done to adapt to inflation changes. It doesn't aim at macro management. Many economists emphasize that we should often use market tools in monetary management which means interest rate should be adjusted more often than before. However, Chinese micro individuals are not sensitive to interest rates, therefore, as a median target in monetarypolicy, the interest rate cannot work efficiently. When many people hold the point, the real effect of interest rate in macro management is always overestimated. In interest rate adjusting in China, interest rate marketing reform is more suitable than non-market interest rate. The biggest obstacle to marketing interest rate is micro-individuals are weak both in pricing interest rate and interest rate decision in the game with the central bank. It is encouraging that the administration has not only chosen to raise interest rate and broaden waving range of interest rate, but also has made great progress in pricing ability.