摘要
以Dempster-Shafer证据理论为基础,通过应用信度预测法,对群体预测意见进行集结,证据理论应用于群体预测具有局限性,提出了克服这一缺点的预测意见集结方法。使用该方法,无论专家意见发生分歧与否均可以得到合理的集结结果。
Aggregating the expertises by using the belief forecasting method based on the D-S evidence reasoning theory in group forecasting process. The D-S evidence reasoning theory has some limitations in expertise integrating. A expertise integrate method that can meet the limitations is brought forward in this paper. The method can educe rational result no matter what the expertises from difference expert has bifurcation or not.
出处
《预测》
CSSCI
2005年第4期66-69,共4页
Forecasting
关键词
预测
意见集结
证据理论
<Keyword>forecasting
expertises integrate
evidence theoryHK
