摘要
利用我国火灾损失统计资料,进行时间趋势分析。结果表明,我国火灾损失呈现一定的上升趋势。在此基础上,采用灰色GM(1,1)模型预测我国火灾损失,经检验预测模型的精度满足要求,其预测结果比较可靠,可以为相关部门的决策提供一定的帮助。
Fire cost statistics of China from 1995 to 2004 were used to analyze the time trend of fire cost in China. Grey dynamic model was used to predict the fire cost. The precision of the model was tested to be good, and the results will be of a certain guiding significant to relative departments.
出处
《消防科学与技术》
CAS
2005年第4期412-414,共3页
Fire Science and Technology
基金
国家"十五"科技攻关计划项目(2002BA803B04)
(2002BA806B03)
关键词
火灾损失
时间趋势
灰色动态模型
预测
<Keyword>fire cost
time trend
grey dynamic model
prediction
