紧缩型非洲经济结构调整方案及其滞胀效应

THE STAGFLATIONARY EFFECT OF THE IBRD AND IMF STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT PROGRAM

自80年代初起,绝大部分非洲国家陆续采纳世界银行(以下简称世行)和国际货币基金组织(以下简称基金)的经济结构调整方案。由于与原有的既定政策目标完全背离,多数非洲国家一度对接受世行及基金的结构调整方案持犹豫的态度。然而,随着经济状况的极度恶化,非洲国家的决策者们对传统政策的信念也开始动摇。1985年7月,非统组织首脑会议通过了《关于当前非洲经济状况的宣言》和《1986～1990年非洲经济复兴优先计划》。两文件首次正式提出,

The 1980s has witnessed that the majorty of African countries are straddledin a further economic contraction and higher inflation rate compared with tho-se of the 1970s albeit the IBRD and the IMF argue that the strong adjustingcountries' performance is improving.Since almost all the African countries haveadopted IBRD and IMF structrural adjustment program, the argument of theIBRD an IMF certainly does not sound convicing. And the statistics of theIBRD and the IMF obviously lacks enough statistical significance. The IBRD and IMF structural adjustment program does have led to economiccontractions in most African countries. Not only have the drastic budgetaryreduction and credit sqeez resulted in the economic contraction, but also thedrastic devaluation, interest rate liberalisation, foreign trade liberalisationand, even, privation have contributed to the economic contraction in general,manufacturng decline in particular, at hoc the IS industries. And also mostIBRD and IMF approachs are inflationary. The IBRD and IMF might haveexpected budgetary reduction and ctedit squeez to be trade-off factors, butthey seem to be too feeble. The staglation resulted from the IBRD and IMF structural adjustment pro-gram has already generated 'reform fatigue', even 'IMF coup'. it is high timethat the IBRD and the IMF adjusted their adjustment program.