Bayes小子样鉴定中仿真可信度研究

Research on Applying Simulation Credibility into Weapon system Appraisal

在仿真试验和飞行试验的一体化试验鉴定过程中,仿真信息的作用越来越突出,仿真的可信度也越来越受到重视。改进Bayes方法,在Bayes公式中引入了仿真可信度,使综合利用仿真数据和试验数据得出的武器性能指标评估结果更加可信。首先,定义了可信性Bayes模型,分析了它的合理性,并把它应用到多阶段武器试验鉴定中。接着,分析了仿真可信度的含义,给出了一个仿真可信度直观定义。最后,通过仿真实例来验证了可信性Bayes分析方法的有效性。

During the process of weapon system appraisal integrated simulation test into missiles' aviation test, simulation information plays a more and more prominent role and simulation credibility is emphasized once and again. Bayesian method is mended by appending simulation into Bayesian formula in order to make the outcome of weapon system appraisal more believable. At first, credible Bayesian model is defined, its rationality is analyzed and it is applied into multistage weapon system appraisal. Then, after analyzing the meanings of simulation credibility, a direct definition of simulation credibility is given. Finally, the credibility of Bayesian method is proved through a simulation instance.