我国贸易开放度与金融发展关系实证研究

本文利用我国1993-2004年的季度时间序列数据,运用协整分析技术和格兰杰因果检验,对贸易开放度与金融发展之间的相关关系及因果关系进行分析。结果显示,贸易开放度与金融中介和股票市场规模指标具有协整关系,同时,贸易开放度是金融中介和股票市场规模指标的格兰杰原因,反之则不成立。而金融中介的BANK指标与贸易开放度不具有协整关系,在一定程度上表明,金融中介的风险分散功能的欠缺。随着加入WTO过渡期的即将结束,竞争将更加激烈,所以完善金融市场,加强其风险分散功能是当务之急。

This paper uses the time series data from the first quarter of 1993 to the forth quarter of 2004 to analyze the problem of correlation and causality between Opening degree of trade and financial development in China by employing the co-integration analysis and Granger test. The results indicate that opening degree of trade, the size of financial intermediation and stock market are co-integration correlation, simultaneously, opening degree of trade is the Granger causality of latter two. But BANK index and opening degree of trade are not correlation, in a sense, it shows the function of dispersing risk of financial intermediation is absent. Improving financial market and enhancing the function of dispersing risk are crucial.