财政风险:从经济总量角度的分析

Financial Risks: an Analysis from the Angle of Aggregate Economy

在干预公共风险的过程中,政府会承受各种各样的支出压力,这些支出压力表现为政府的各种形式的负债,即未来一个时期政府资源的流出。作为公共主体,政府面对的债务是不确定的,不能仅仅从会计学角度来认定。公共债务与经济总量是一种历史的循环关系,不同的循环状态决定了政府财政风险是趋向收敛还是发散。不同的债务结构对经济总量及其增长产生不同的影响,因而具有不同的风险。认清不同公共债务类型的来源、不确定性程度及其风险可控性,是把握公共债务与经济总量的关联向哪一种循环转化的重要一环,仅仅关注债务总量是远远不够的,抽象地谈公共债务负担率的高低没有意义。改善公共债务结构,降低整个公共债务的不确定性程度至关重要,这比控制债务规模更迫切。

In the process of interfering with public risks, the government bears all kinds of pressures which find there expression in various liabilities that will, in a period, eventually result in future outflows of public resources. As the public entity, the government contracts uncertain debts, which cannot be measured by accounting. There is a kind of historical cycle between public liabilities and aggregate economy and dif- ferent cycle determines whether fiscal risks diverges or converges. Different debt structure has different impact on aggregate economy and its growth, hence different fiscal risks. The right understanding of the origins of different kinds of public debts, the degree of their uncertainty and manageability, is an impor- tant factor to know to which cycle the correlation between public liabilities and aggregate economy will turn; it is far from enough only to pay attention to debt aggregation, and it is meaningless to talk abstract- ly about aggregate public debt figures. It is of vital importance and more pressing than controlling debt scale to improve public debt structure to reduce the uncertainty of the whole public liabilities.