经济结构变化与经济增长

Structural Changes and Economic Growth

卡尔多事实描述的是发达工业化经济在短期内的现象，如果我们考虑欠发达国家，或者考虑工业化早期，卡尔多事实所反映的规律就会消失。一般而言。人均产出增长率与人均产出水平两者之间表现出非线性的驼峰形(hump-shaped)关系。本文认为，这种关系是由于经济内部结构的变化(即农业、制造业和服务业的相对比重变化)以及城乡劳动力转移和城市化引起的。进一步，本文提出了两种相互竞争的模型。一种认为经济增长由工业部门驱动，另一种则认为城市化是经济增长的动力。两种模型都与经济结构变化和经济增长的主要特征吻合，至于哪一个模型能更好地反映经济现实，则还需要进一步验证。

The Kaldor stylized facts describe the short-term phenomenon of advanced econo-my,but may not be consistent with the growth path of less developed countries or early stage of industrialization.Generally,the relationship between the growth rate of per capita GDP and the level of per capita GDP shows a hump-shaped curve.This paper theorizes that this hump-shaped relation is caused by structural changes such as sectoral employment variations and urbanization.We also go one step further to develop two competing models,one of which relates economic growth to industrial expansion,another of which treats economic growth as being driven by ur-banization.Both models are consistent with the pattern of the co-movement of economic structural changes and economic growth.