地震科技发展战略之思考

Thoughts on Strategy for Development of Science and Technology on Earthquake

防震减灾事业的长期可持续发展取决于地震科技进步,而制定好地震科技发展规划是推动地震科技进步的重要保障。本文建议了地震科技发展战略制定应考虑的5个原则,提出当前和今后一段时期地震科技发展战略的构想,从11个方面提出了“十一五”地震科技项目建议,同时,对其中地震预报科学实验场的选择提出了原则建议,进而从科学意义与必要性、已具备的条件、科学目标、监测与研究内容和运行机制与模式等5个方面论述了祁连山大震机理与预报科学实验场建设的可行性。

A long-term and sustainable development of the earthquake disaster mitigation depends on a progress of seismological science and technology. However, it will play an important role on a progress of seismological science and technology to make a good plan for the development of seismological science and technology. In this paper, five principals are proposed which should be considered to make the strategy of developing seismological science and technology. The strategy of developing seismological science and technology in present and later period is conceived. Based on the strategy, 11 proposals of research project on earthquake science and technology are presented. Among them, the factors are suggested which should be considered to select scientific test field on earthquake prediction. Moreover, practicability of constructing Qilianshan scientific test field on the mechanism and prediction of earthquakes is discussed in terms of scientific significance and necessity, conditions, scientific target, monitoring and research contents and operating mechanism and mode.