中国600个站气温和IPCC模式产品气温的比较

Comparison of Temperature between Six Hundreds Stations in China and Output of IPCC Models

利用中国600个站1961～2000年的月平均气温和IPCC提供的7个全球海气耦合模式(CCC、CCSR、CSIRO、DKRZ、GFDL、HADL、NCAR)在同样时段只考虑CO2等温室气体的影响的气温产品,进行了对比分析。结果表明:(1)IPCC模式对中国区域气温有一定的模拟能力,考虑总体情况,HADL模式模拟效果最好,依次是模式CCSR、DKRZ、7个模式平均、模式CSIRO、NCAR、CCC、GFDL;(2)低纬度地区比中纬度地区和高纬度地区、中部地区比东部地区和西部地区的模式产品模拟效果更接近于中国600站的实况,另外中纬度地区模拟的效果好于高纬度地区,东部地区模拟效果好于西部地区;(3)中国600个站的气温与IPCC模式的气温产品在中国区域都有上升的趋势,与全球气候变暖的趋势相一致。

In the context of monthly mean temperature of six hundred stations in China from 1961 to 2000 and the temperature output of seven IPCC models (CCC,CCSR,CSIRO,DKRZ,GFDL,HADL,NCAR )only considering the effect of greenhouse gases are analyzed. Results show that (1) These IPCC models certainly have the capability of modeling temperature changes in China, generally, HADL model is the best in simulating temperature changes over china in seven models, then is CCSR, DKRZ, average of seven models, CSIRO, NCAR, CCC, GFDL.(2) The simulating effects in the low latitude region are better than that in the middle latitude region and high latitude region and the simulating effects in the middle region are better than that in the east region and west region, besides, simulating effects in the middle latitude region are better than that of high latitude region, simulating effects in the east region are better than that of the west region. (3) The temperature of six hundred stations in China and the output of IPCC models have rising trend, the same as the global warming trend of climate.